Decision Journal
An educational record of research decisions — not investment advice or an execution log. The research-bot appends one compact row after each report. Edit the row if the final personal decision differs from the report.
| Date | Ticker | Decision | Conviction | Core assumption | Review date | Outcome / lesson |
|---|
Rules
- Record the decision at the time it is made; do not rewrite the original rationale after the result is known.
Convictionis Low / Medium / High, based on evidence quality and falsifiability — never position size.Core assumptionnames the one fact that must remain true. The report's §5g supplies the review date and controlling question.- Each quarter, review closed or mature entries: what was right, what was wrong, whether the base rate was misread, and which signal should change next time. Add durable lessons to
lessons/. - Missing evidence is a valid outcome: record
Watchrather than inventing certainty. | 2026-07-20 | ARM | Watch | Medium | ARM's Armv9/CSS royalty-rate doubling mechanism will keep licensing revenue growing at or above ~20%/year through FY2028, which is required to grow into the current ~120x+ forward multiple within a normal investment horizon. | 2026-07-29 (Q1 FY2027 earnings release) | |\n