Decision Journal

An educational record of research decisions — not investment advice or an execution log. The research-bot appends one compact row after each report. Edit the row if the final personal decision differs from the report.

Rules

• Record the decision at the time it is made; do not rewrite the original rationale after the result is known.
• Conviction is Low / Medium / High, based on evidence quality and falsifiability — never position size.
• Core assumption names the one fact that must remain true. The report's §5g supplies the review date and controlling question.
• Each quarter, review closed or mature entries: what was right, what was wrong, whether the base rate was misread, and which signal should change next time. Add durable lessons to lessons/.
• Missing evidence is a valid outcome: record Watch rather than inventing certainty. | 2026-07-20 | ARM | Watch | Medium | ARM's Armv9/CSS royalty-rate doubling mechanism will keep licensing revenue growing at or above ~20%/year through FY2028, which is required to grow into the current ~120x+ forward multiple within a normal investment horizon. | 2026-07-29 (Q1 FY2027 earnings release) | |\n| 2026-07-22 | MSFT | Watch | Medium | Azure's ~40% growth rate and its $80B unfulfilled order backlog persist through at least two more quarters without meaningful deceleration or a disclosed drop in Azure AI gross margin. | 2026-07-29 (estimated FY2026 Q4 earnings date) | |\n| 2026-07-23 | CEG | Watch | Medium | CEG's nuclear scarcity value justifies a premium to IPP peers, but the current ~23× forward P/E already prices in flawless execution on FERC approvals and PPA ramp-up, leaving asymmetric downside if either slips. | 2026-08-06 (Q2 2026 earnings, estimated) | |\n| 2026-07-24 | CEG | Watch | Medium | CEG's guided free-cash-flow ramp ($8.4B in 2026-2027 → $11.5-13.0B by 2028-2029) requires both Calpine integration and nuclear uprates to land close to schedule; if either slips, the current ~23-25× forward multiple has little cushion. | Next earnings release — Q2/Q3 2026 (estimated late July/October 2026, exact date TBD from company IR calendar) | |\n| 2026-07-25 | GEV | Watch | Medium | GEV's operations will keep delivering (margins ↑, backlog ↑), but at ~$940 (~50× forward P/E) the price already embeds that success, so the risk/reward only turns clearly attractive on a meaningful pullback or after earnings grow into the multiple. | Next earnings — estimated ~October 2026 (Q3'26 release) | |\n| 2026-07-26 | ETN | Watch | Medium | Eaton's demand is real and de-risked by backlog, but at ~30× EBITDA the price already assumes margin expansion that the capacity ramp may delay for 12–18 months. | Next quarterly earnings (est. early November 2026, Q3 2026 release) | |\n| 2026-07-27 | VRT | Watch | Medium | VRT's business is excellent, but at ~48× forward earnings the stock prices in sustained 20%+ growth with no digestion year — an asymmetry that favors patience over chasing. | Q1 2026 earnings (est. late April 2026) | |\n| 2026-08-16 | SpaceX | Watch | Medium | By the Q4 2026 report, SpaceX will still not be covering capex from operating cash flow, and will have announced or clearly signalled incremental capital beyond the $25B of bonds already issued. | Q3 2026 earnings — estimated early November 2026 | |\n